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Seminarie

Stochastic Modeling and Analysis for Epidemic Models

Välkommen till föreläsningen i seminarieserien i matematik.

Föredragshållare
Mohamed El Fatini från Ibn Tofail University

Titel
Stochastic Modeling and Analysis for Epidemic Models

Abstrakt
There are many cases when deterministic models are not adequate. For example, dynamics fluctuations are not smoothed out by statistical averaging, and the time evolutions of such systems are therefore stochastic. The randomness in the system usually cannot be ignored, thus, one is forced to adopt a stochastic description. The stochastic models take into account in addition of the mean trend, the variance structure around it. In this work we are interested in the study of the behavior of the global positive solution for an epidemic model characterized by temporary immunity. We analyze the qualitative behavior of the disease around both the disease-free and endemic equilibriums. We show that the solution has random fluctuations with an intensity related to the values of the volatility or jump increments.
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